{"id":11098,"date":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climate-wise.com\/se-nos-acaba-el-tiempo-se-preve-que-el-calentamiento-global-supere-los-15-grados-en-una-decada\/"},"modified":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","modified_gmt":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","slug":"se-nos-acaba-el-tiempo-se-preve-que-el-calentamiento-global-supere-los-15-grados-en-una-decada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climate-wise.com\/es\/se-nos-acaba-el-tiempo-se-preve-que-el-calentamiento-global-supere-los-15-grados-en-una-decada\/","title":{"rendered":"Se nos acaba el tiempo: se prev\u00e9 que el calentamiento global supere los 1,5 grados en una d\u00e9cada"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"En 2015, 196 Partes firmaron un tratado internacional jur\u00eddicamente vinculante sobre el cambio clim\u00e1tico. El Acuerdo de Par\u00eds estableci\u00f3 el objetivo de limitar el calentamiento global muy por debajo de los 2 grados cent\u00edgrados, e idealmente a 1,5 grados cent\u00edgrados en comparaci\u00f3n con los niveles preindustriales. Limitar el calentamiento es esencial para evitar los peores efectos del cambio clim\u00e1tico, como la subida del nivel del mar y olas de calor m\u00e1s graves y frecuentes, entre otros fen\u00f3menos meteorol\u00f3gicos extremos. Ocho a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s, los estudios advierten de que es muy probable que superemos el umbral de 1,5 grados cent\u00edgrados.<\/p>\n

Cient\u00edficos de la Agencia de Protecci\u00f3n Medioambiental de Estados Unidos y del Laboratorio Nacional del Noroeste del Pac\u00edfico del Departamento de<\/a> Energ\u00eda han llevado a cabo una nueva investigaci\u00f3n que pone de relieve que las actuales promesas clim\u00e1ticas mundiales no alcanzar\u00e1n los objetivos marcados en el Acuerdo de Par\u00eds, lo que nos llevar\u00e1 a sobrepasar el l\u00edmite. Si queremos minimizar el alcance del calentamiento global, los pa\u00edses deben adoptar compromisos clim\u00e1ticos m\u00e1s ambiciosos y trabajar al mismo tiempo para descarbonizar sus econom\u00edas con mayor rapidez. Todas las acciones deben centrarse en limitar la cantidad de tiempo que el planeta pasa en un estado m\u00e1s c\u00e1lido.<\/p>\n

\"\"Aunque la superaci\u00f3n de los objetivos del Acuerdo de Par\u00eds parece inevitable, como parte de su investigaci\u00f3n, demuestran varios cursos potenciales en los que el per\u00edodo de superaci\u00f3n se acorta significativamente. Tenemos que limitar el tiempo que el planeta pasa por encima del l\u00edmite de 1,5 grados y reducirlo lo antes posible. Cuanto m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido consigamos hacer descender la temperatura global, menos probabilidades tendremos de experimentar los efectos m\u00e1s nocivos del calentamiento global. Si los pa\u00edses no se centran en fijar objetivos m\u00e1s ambiciosos y hacer m\u00e1s por el planeta, podr\u00edamos enfrentarnos a consecuencias irreversibles no s\u00f3lo para los sistemas naturales, sino tambi\u00e9n para los humanos. Hay que adelantar los plazos de las promesas de emisiones netas cero y acelerar la descarbonizaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

El tiempo es el factor m\u00e1s crucial en este caso; tenemos que actuar con urgencia. Tenemos que mover la aguja de 2 grados a 1,5 grados cent\u00edgrados. Las promesas de la COP26 y la COP27 no son suficientes, no hay garant\u00edas de que vayan a limitar el calentamiento global ni siquiera a 2 grados cent\u00edgrados. No podemos esperar a otra COP, los pa\u00edses deben vigilar activamente su impacto sobre el planeta. Hay que centrarse en limitar el rebasamiento.<\/p>\n

En el estudio se examinan 27 trayectorias de emisiones, considerando diferentes cursos de acci\u00f3n y el siguiente resultado. La v\u00eda m\u00e1s ambiciosa preve\u00eda que el objetivo cero neto podr\u00eda alcanzarse en 2057. Esto exigir\u00eda r\u00e1pidas transformaciones de nuestros sistemas energ\u00e9ticos a escala mundial y una gran ampliaci\u00f3n de la captura y el almacenamiento de carbono junto con tecnolog\u00edas bajas en carbono. Las tecnolog\u00edas, como los coches el\u00e9ctricos y las energ\u00edas renovables, son importantes para alcanzar el cero neto, pero los investigadores tambi\u00e9n destacan la importancia de las tecnolog\u00edas de eliminaci\u00f3n de carbono. En cambio, si los pa\u00edses siguen una tasa m\u00ednima de descarbonizaci\u00f3n del dos por ciento, no se alcanzar\u00eda el cero neto este siglo.<\/p>\n

\"\"Estamos a punto de superar un umbral clim\u00e1tico cr\u00edtico, la inteligencia artificial<\/a> ha predicho que es probable que superemos los 1,5 grados de calentamiento en la pr\u00f3xima d\u00e9cada y los 2 grados a mediados de siglo. Seg\u00fan el modelo, hay casi un 70% de probabilidades de que se supere el umbral de los 2 grados entre 2044 y 2065, a pesar del r\u00e1pido descenso de las emisiones. Tenemos pruebas del impacto de 1 grado cent\u00edgrado de calentamiento, todos lo hemos experimentado de alguna manera, ya sea a trav\u00e9s de una ola de calor, una inundaci\u00f3n u otro efecto negativo. A medida que el planeta se caliente, estos efectos ser\u00e1n cada vez m\u00e1s frecuentes y graves.<\/p>\n

Si bien es posible que superemos los umbrales fijados para el calentamiento global, podemos limitar el tiempo que permanezcamos en el periodo de superaci\u00f3n. La conclusi\u00f3n general es que debemos esforzarnos por adoptar medidas clim\u00e1ticas m\u00e1s ambiciosas antes de que sea demasiado tarde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En 2015, 196 Partes firmaron un tratado internacional jur\u00eddicamente vinculante sobre el cambio clim\u00e1tico. El Acuerdo de Par\u00eds estableci\u00f3 el objetivo de limitar el calentamiento global muy por debajo de los 2 grados cent\u00edgrados, e idealmente a 1,5 grados cent\u00edgrados en comparaci\u00f3n con los niveles preindustriales. Limitar el calentamiento es esencial para evitar los peores… Seguir leyendo Se nos acaba el tiempo: se prev\u00e9 que el calentamiento global supere los 1,5 grados en una d\u00e9cada<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8740,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[218],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-y-articulos-es","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSe nos acaba el tiempo: se prev\u00e9 que el calentamiento global supere los 1,5 grados en una d\u00e9cada - Climate Wise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En 2015, 196 Partes firmaron un tratado internacional jur\u00eddicamente vinculante sobre el cambio clim\u00e1tico. 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