{"id":11099,"date":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climate-wise.com\/le-temps-presse-le-rechauffement-climatique-devrait-depasser-15-degre-dici-dix-ans\/"},"modified":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","modified_gmt":"2023-02-07T06:58:03","slug":"le-temps-presse-le-rechauffement-climatique-devrait-depasser-15-degre-dici-dix-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climate-wise.com\/fr\/le-temps-presse-le-rechauffement-climatique-devrait-depasser-15-degre-dici-dix-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"Le temps presse : le r\u00e9chauffement climatique devrait d\u00e9passer 1,5 degr\u00e9 d’ici dix ans"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"En 2015, 196 parties ont sign\u00e9 un trait\u00e9 international juridiquement contraignant sur le changement climatique. L’accord de Paris s’est fix\u00e9 pour objectif de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement climatique bien en dessous de 2 degr\u00e9s Celsius, et id\u00e9alement \u00e0 1,5 degr\u00e9 Celsius par rapport aux niveaux pr\u00e9industriels. Il est essentiel de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement pour \u00e9viter les pires cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique, notamment l’\u00e9l\u00e9vation du niveau des mers et l’augmentation de la gravit\u00e9 et de la fr\u00e9quence des vagues de chaleur, entre autres ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames. Huit ans plus tard, des \u00e9tudes indiquent qu’il est tr\u00e8s probable que nous d\u00e9passions le seuil de 1,5 degr\u00e9 Celsius.<\/p>\n

Des scientifiques de l’Agence am\u00e9ricaine de protection de l’environnement et du Pacific Northwest National Laboratory du minist\u00e8re de l’\u00c9nergie<\/a> ont men\u00e9 de nouvelles recherches soulignant que les engagements actuels en mati\u00e8re de climat mondial ne permettront pas d’atteindre les objectifs \u00e9nonc\u00e9s dans l’Accord de Paris, ce qui nous conduira \u00e0 d\u00e9passer la limite. Si nous voulons r\u00e9duire l’ampleur du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, les pays doivent adopter des engagements plus ambitieux en mati\u00e8re de climat tout en s’effor\u00e7ant de d\u00e9carboniser plus rapidement leurs \u00e9conomies. Toutes les actions doivent viser \u00e0 limiter la dur\u00e9e de r\u00e9chauffement de la plan\u00e8te.<\/p>\n

\"\"Si le d\u00e9passement des objectifs de l’Accord de Paris semble in\u00e9vitable, dans le cadre de leurs recherches, ils d\u00e9montrent plusieurs parcours potentiels o\u00f9 la p\u00e9riode de d\u00e9passement est raccourcie de mani\u00e8re significative. Nous devons limiter le temps que la plan\u00e8te passe au-dessus de la limite de 1,5 degr\u00e9 et la faire redescendre aussi vite que possible. Plus nous parviendrons \u00e0 faire baisser rapidement la temp\u00e9rature de la plan\u00e8te, moins nous risquerons de subir les effets les plus n\u00e9fastes du r\u00e9chauffement climatique. Si les pays ne se concentrent pas sur la fixation d’objectifs plus ambitieux et ne font pas davantage pour la plan\u00e8te, nous pourrions \u00eatre confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des cons\u00e9quences irr\u00e9versibles non seulement pour les syst\u00e8mes naturels, mais aussi pour les syst\u00e8mes humains. Les d\u00e9lais pour les engagements en faveur d’une consommation nette nulle doivent \u00eatre avanc\u00e9s et la d\u00e9carbonisation doit \u00eatre plus rapide.<\/p>\n

Le temps est le facteur le plus crucial ici ; nous devons agir de toute urgence. Nous devons faire passer la barre des 2 degr\u00e9s \u00e0 1,5 degr\u00e9 Celsius. Les engagements pris lors des COP26 et COP27 ne sont pas suffisants, car rien ne garantit qu’ils permettront de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement de la plan\u00e8te \u00e0 2 degr\u00e9s Celsius. Nous ne pouvons pas attendre une nouvelle COP, les pays doivent surveiller activement leur impact sur la plan\u00e8te. L’accent doit \u00eatre mis sur la limitation du d\u00e9passement.<\/p>\n

L’\u00e9tude examine 27 trajectoires d’\u00e9missions, en envisageant diff\u00e9rentes lignes d’action et les r\u00e9sultats suivants. La trajectoire la plus ambitieuse pr\u00e9voyait que l’objectif z\u00e9ro net pourrait \u00eatre atteint d’ici 2057. Cela n\u00e9cessiterait des transformations rapides de nos syst\u00e8mes \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelle mondiale et un d\u00e9veloppement consid\u00e9rable du pi\u00e9geage et du stockage du carbone, parall\u00e8lement aux technologies \u00e0 faible teneur en carbone. Les technologies telles que les voitures \u00e9lectriques et les \u00e9nergies renouvelables sont importantes pour parvenir \u00e0 une situation nette z\u00e9ro, mais les chercheurs soulignent \u00e9galement l’importance des technologies d’\u00e9limination du carbone. En revanche, si les pays suivent un taux de d\u00e9carbonisation minimum de 2 %, le taux net z\u00e9ro ne sera pas atteint au cours de ce si\u00e8cle.<\/p>\n

\"\"Nous sommes sur le point de d\u00e9passer un seuil climatique critique. L’intelligence artificielle<\/a> a pr\u00e9dit qu’il est probable que nous d\u00e9passerons 1,5 degr\u00e9 de r\u00e9chauffement au cours de la prochaine d\u00e9cennie et 2 degr\u00e9s au milieu du si\u00e8cle. Le mod\u00e8le a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 qu’il y a pr\u00e8s de 70 % de chances que le seuil de 2 degr\u00e9s soit d\u00e9pass\u00e9 entre 2044 et 2065, malgr\u00e9 une baisse rapide des \u00e9missions. Nous avons la preuve de l’impact d’un r\u00e9chauffement d’un degr\u00e9 Celsius, nous en avons tous fait l’exp\u00e9rience d’une mani\u00e8re ou d’une autre, qu’il s’agisse d’une vague de chaleur, d’une inondation ou d’un autre effet n\u00e9gatif. \u00c0 mesure que la plan\u00e8te se r\u00e9chauffe, ces effets vont devenir plus fr\u00e9quents et plus graves.<\/p>\n

M\u00eame si nous risquons de d\u00e9passer les seuils fix\u00e9s pour le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, nous pouvons limiter la dur\u00e9e de cette p\u00e9riode de d\u00e9passement. Ce qu’il faut retenir, c’est que nous devons nous efforcer de prendre des mesures climatiques plus ambitieuses avant qu’il ne soit trop tard.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En 2015, 196 parties ont sign\u00e9 un trait\u00e9 international juridiquement contraignant sur le changement climatique. L’accord de Paris s’est fix\u00e9 pour objectif de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement climatique bien en dessous de 2 degr\u00e9s Celsius, et id\u00e9alement \u00e0 1,5 degr\u00e9 Celsius par rapport aux niveaux pr\u00e9industriels. Il est essentiel de limiter le r\u00e9chauffement pour \u00e9viter les… Poursuivre la lecture Le temps presse : le r\u00e9chauffement climatique devrait d\u00e9passer 1,5 degr\u00e9 d’ici dix ans<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8739,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nouvelles-et-articles-fr","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe temps presse : le r\u00e9chauffement climatique devrait d\u00e9passer 1,5 degr\u00e9 d'ici dix ans - Climate Wise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En 2015, 196 parties ont sign\u00e9 un trait\u00e9 international juridiquement contraignant sur le changement climatique. 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